1.0 Market Overview and Volatility Projections
This section establishes the foundational quantitative metrics for the trading session. The volatility expectations and statistical range projections detailed below are essential for creating a baseline trading thesis and understanding the market's potential for movement today.
Key data points for the session are as follows:
- Date: October 7, 2025
- Market: MYM Micro Dow Jones Futures
- Key Event Calendar: No significant reports scheduled.
- Volatility Factor: 50 ($25 per contract).
Statistical analysis indicates a 69% probability that today's trading range will be wider than 468 points. However, the data presents a conflicting signal. The three primary range projections for the session are 318, 440, and 621 points. The strategic implication here is that the average expected range of 440 points is notably lower than the 468-point threshold required to meet the 69% probability. This discrepancy serves as a caution flag, suggesting a higher-than-usual potential for a "31% day"—a session where the market fails to achieve its statistically probable wider range.
From a tactical standpoint, our methodology is to always start with the lowest projection and work outward. The objective is to identify the initial range in the morning session, especially in the case of a reversal, and not concern ourselves with the larger potential range until the first is decisively broken.
With these probabilities in mind, we now turn to the specific price levels that will define the trading landscape.
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Posted In Technology | Posted By Admin | Posted On 10 November, 2018
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